Is U.S. construction doing well? It depends on who you ask.
It’s hard to gauge with some resources, as many of the statistics-based or analytical entities on the federal level have been affected by the ongoing (as of when this article is written) government shutdown, but there are still some prevalent opinions and statistics from August and early September 2025 that give a good indicator of where the rest of the year could go.
Back in July, Ken Simonson, chief economist for AGC of America, gave a presentation on the state of the industry. He said “construction job gains have slowed, but still outpace other sectors,” with the figures for nonresidential and non-farm construction distancing themselves from the residential construction figure.
For those interested in the full report, it can be accessed at tinyurl.com/2pbpbfbm.
It’s obviously not as simple as that. There are other human resource related-questions: the relationship between hiring statistics and current layoff figures, wage and competitive pay rates, input costs and project viability. The list goes on and on.
A report shared via Yahoo! Finance is a little less optimistic – though not without some silver linings.
“The analyst expects growth in the U.S.’s construction industry to slow sharply in 2025, growing only 1%, in real terms, compared with 6.5% in 2024. This growth rate decline comes following low homebuilders’ sentiment and weak investor confidence, amid rising construction input prices and increasing project delays” (per Research and Markets, Global Newswire).
The report noted things like the ongoing tariffs and a rise in the price index of new home construction, as noted by the U.S. Census Bureau, as contributing factors.
There are still a few positive impact points on the horizon, however.
“The industry is expected to register an average annual growth of 1.9% from 2026 to 2029, supported by investments in the transportation, data center construction, housing and manufacturing projects. One key development came in June 2025, when the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) allocated $4.9 billion in grant funding as part of the Bridge Investment Program.”
What is the state of the ongoing tariff conversation as pertains to the industry? This “Tariff Resource Center” page courtesy of AGC of America is a great resource for materials effected – and it does seem that at this point it is still raw material inputs that are being most adversely impacted.
Some of the top-ranking materials are the 50% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, 50% tariff on copper imports, 30% on Chinese goods (the Chinese tariffs will hit 100% Nov. 1, according to recent statements from President Trump in early October) and the lengthy list of 15% to 40% reciprocal tariffs effecting countries throughout the world.
International law firm Reed Smith also has a great tariff tracking resource that, though a little more technical in nature, is good to reference.
So, where does this mixed-bag evaluation leave us? Market growth may have slowed, but writ large, things appear to be holding. Residential construction is going to fare worse than nonresidential sectors – where there is possibility with various infrastructure initiatives. Hopefully, industry lobbyists and legislators can navigate some of the market issues and things begin to climb again in the new year.
Until then, the industry continues to push forward.
